By Brian Spurlock, US PresswireJake Locker hopes to be taken in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday.
By Brian Spurlock, US PresswireJake Locker hopes to be taken in the first round of the NFL draft on Thursday.
Brett Favre is not coming back this time.Yet maybe there's a clone on the way in Jake Locker.
"He looks a lot like Favre," says Dave Razzano, a former NFL scout who breaks down the draft for PlaymakerMobile.com. "The whole style — the way he moves with it, the way he throws it off his back foot, the way he puts his shoulder into it, the way he runs around street-balling — makes you think he should have No. 4 on his chest."
Favre comparison or not, the athletic Washington quarterback is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft.
A few months ago Locker entered the college football season rated as the top prospect overall. But his stock slid during an inconsistent senior season.
"He had to play to the level of a No. 1 pick, and he didn't," ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. says. "He struggled again with accuracy. He didn't have great talent around him. He did play through injuries; I give him credit for that. But the accuracy is an issue.
"When the ball leaves his hand, sometimes you don't know where it's going."
Many analysts rate Auburn's Cam Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert as the top quarterbacks in the draft.
Even so, Locker, who completed 55% of his passes last season with a 17-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, doesn't regret his decision to return. Had he entered last year's draft as a junior, he might have been a solid top-10 pick.
"I don't think I would have been as prepared last year," Locker said during the NFL combine. "I feel a lot better after having another year playing."
Razzano says Locker has more upside than any quarterback in the draft.
"When he's at his best," Razzano says, "he looks like the second coming."
Of Favre? The late George Young used to joke that most scouts believed in reincarnation because they were always looking for the "next" somebody. Comparisons indeed are a part of a culture on the lookout for the next Lawrence Taylor, Warren Sapp or Dan Marino.
Razzano, who worked for three NFL teams, was moved enough to check how the Washington quarterback's statistics — including his completion rate — measured against Favre's numbers when he was coming out of Southern Mississippi in 1991:
Locker threw 35 interceptions in college, Favre 34.
Locker had 53 TDs, Favre 52.
And Favre's college completion rate (52.4%) wasn't pretty, either.
"The consistency will come with better talent around him," Razzano says of Locker.
Razzano thinks Locker would have demonstrated better efficiency in an offense built on a short, high-percentage passing game. After watching extensive film, he contends Locker often ran because receivers were covered and was affected by the lack of outlet targets built in the system and poor blocking.
"He rarely got to set his feet without someone in his face," Razzano says.
Jon Gruden can vouch for that. Gruden, an ESPN analyst, says he admires Locker for keeping his word and returning and would enjoy coaching him.
"This is one tough guy," Gruden says. "He does have to improve his accuracy. But I think when you're hit a lot and asked to do as much as Locker's been asked to do, sometimes your fundamentals wane a little bit. They disappear in key situations. … (But) I think there is a real passionate fire inside this guy that somebody's going to capture."
Teams in need at quarterback
Carolina Panthers: New coach Ron Rivera inherited an offense that produced the fewest points in the NFL last season and is desperate to build around a franchise quarterback. Never mind Jimmy Clausen, a second-round pick last year. There's potential for greater upside with playmaker Cam Newton.
Buffalo Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his moments, and proved to be an adequate short-term solution. Yet with two of the first 34 picks in the draft, it's an opportune time to supply coach Chan Gailey with a passer to groom for the long haul.
Cincinnati Bengals: It was only eight years ago when Carson Palmer was drafted No. 1 overall, which made up for the mistake of taking Akili Smith third overall in 1999. Now Palmer, off shaky 2010 campaign (AFC-high 20 INTs), threatens to sit out if trade demands are unmet. Such uncertainty underscores the need for a long-term fix. Again.
Arizona Cardinals: A year removed from Kurt Warner's retirement and the dumping of Matt Leinart, there's a risk squandering star wideout Larry Fitzgerald's talent. Signing a vet such as Marc Bulger would help as an upgrade over Derek Anderson. But are second-year passers Max Hall and John Skelton legit long-term options?
San Francisco 49ers: It's too bad that new coach Jim Harbaugh couldn't bring perhaps college football's most polished passer, Andrew Luck, with him from Stanford. The task of building a winner is set against the backdrop of a rich 49ers quarterback tradition that does not include Alex Smith or Troy Smith.
Tennessee Titans: Vince Young's last Titanic meltdown and the transition from Jeff Fisher to new coach Mike Munchak underscore the new day in Nashville. But unlike the case when Young was snagged in 2006, the Titans probably won't have a shot at either of the top two quarterbacks in the draft — Newton or Blaine Gabbert.
Washington Redskins: Rex Grossman comes back after emerging in a pinch last year, but that is seemingly a stop-gap solution. Just like Donovan McNabb was. It's time for Mike Shanahan to try repeating history by getting his hands on another young quarterback to groom for the long haul.
Minnesota Vikings: Brett Favre's not coming back this time. Even if the Vikings acquire a vet such as McNabb for new coach Leslie Frazier, the franchise is pressed to develop a long-term answer. Tarvaris Jackson and Joe Webb? Expect competition.
Cream of the crop: Best of the rest at QB
Cam Newton, Auburn ( Film room video)
• Height: 6-5. Weight: 248
• Scouting report: Despite exceptional physical skills — size, speed, cannon arm — that allowed him to produce 50 TDs as a pass-run threat in 2010, his NFL worth could hinge on whether he masters the intricacies of the quarterback position and transitions well from a spread offense. He can start by demonstrating better footwork in the pocket and more consistent accuracy.
• Insider's take: "He's Michael Vick, 4 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier. That is a bear to deal with." • Fox analyst Howie Long
• Projected round: First
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri ( Film room video)
• Height: 6-4. Weight: 234
• Scouting report: Some analysts rate him as the draft's best quarterback prospect, and his package includes good mobility and a live arm with a quick release. Yet coming from a spread offense, he will have to become adept at making the proper reads on the pro level. Although he mounted 3,186 passing yards in 2010, he threw for just 16 TDs. He needs better touch — especially on his deep balls.
• Insider's take: "If I had to take a quarterback in the top 10, it would be him. But I wouldn't take any of them in the top 10." —NBC analyst Cris Collinsworth
• Projected round: First
Christian Ponder, Florida State ( Film room video)
• Height: 6-2. Weight: 229
• Scouting report: Perhaps the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft, provided he's matched with a West Coast-type system similar to the pro scheme he ran in college. His nifty footwork has helped his accuracy flourish in the short passing game. A stat to like: In the red zone in 2010, he threw for 16 TDs with just one pick. Questions about his arm strength and durability.
• Insider's take: "He's an accurate intermediate thrower. People want to see him push the ball maybe a little more down the field. Like to see a little more arm strength. But I think those things will come." —ESPN analyst Jon Gruden
• Projected round: First/Second
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas ( Film room video)
• Height: 6-7. Weight: 253
• Scouting report: With maybe the strongest arm in the draft. Has a natural, over-the-top release. But despite leading the talent-rich SEC in TD passes in consecutive seasons (32 in 2010), he's is not accurate on the move nor fluid in re-setting his feet. He draws questions about his maturity.
• Insider's take: "The lack of mobility really hurts him. And his leadership and character questions are a concern. Not my type." — PlaymakerMobile.com analyst Dave Razzano
• Projected round: First/Second
Andy Dalton, TCU ( Film room video)
• Height: 6-3. Weight: 220
• Scouting report: Dalton was tremendously effective, posting a 42-7 record in four seasons as a starter at TCU. His 27 touchdowns in 2010 set a school record and he finished in the top 10 in Heisman voting. Dalton seems to have the necessary tools to succeed in the NFL, but will have to overcome the duel stigma of being a spread-offense QB and playing against inferior competition.
• Projected round: First/Second
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